The Republican Primaries Begin
More by Chris Janson - 01/12
Welcome to 2012! Though the year has just begun, and next November may seem like a long way away, the drama surrounding the upcoming Presidential Election has already begun.
One candidate is certain: President Obama has already started campaigning for reelection to a second term in office. However, it is not yet certain who Obama’s opponent, or opponents, will be.
The race for the Republican nomination is well underway. Candidates have been campaigning for the support of the Grand Old Party since last summer. And with the Iowa Caucus looming January 3rd, the clock is ticking, the stakes have grown, and the race and rhetoric have heated up.
The race has been a roller coaster so far. Every month or so, a new candidate has shot to dominance, appearing ready to separate himself from the pack, only to fade away. Leaders have come and gone, and numerous have been mired in controversy along the way. There are seven nationally-recognized contenders for the GOP nomination. No, neither Sarah Palin nor Donald Trump is on the ticket.
The behavior of the polls can be described in one phrase: anyone but Romney. Ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has always floated at/near the top of opinion polls, consistently garnering support of around 20% of registered Republicans. Many Republicans, however, distrust Romney for a variety of reasons and seem to be groping for any living, breathing alternative.
The campaign’s monthly phenoms have, in their turns, grown to temporarily eclipse Romney. None established themselves as a serious threat to Romney’s dominance by maintaining a fat share of public support–that is, until recently.
Over the summer, Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann was the national sensation, but has since become a marginal candidate. In October, Texas Governor Rick Perry passed Romney to lead the polls with over 20% of public support. Since then, Perry has faded to single digits. In November, Georgia businessman Herman Cain gained momentum and looked poised to usurp Romney, but was forced out of the election due to allegations of sexual harassment and an extramarital affair.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is the campaign’s latest flavor of the month. Gingrich’s poll numbers surged from single digits up into the twenties in late November. Unlike previous phenoms, however, Gingrich’s support has not melted away. Gingrich now leads polls with roughly 30-35% of support.
Still, Gingrich has by no means run away with the election. Romney, as ever, hovers at just above 20%. While Gingrich and Romney have established themselves as the race’s two leaders, other candidates have not yet given up.
On the contrary, lesser candidates have gone on the offensive and significantly ramped up criticism of Gingrich and Romney, trying to blast their way into serious contention. Texas Congressman Ron Paul leads this second tier of candidates, both in polling and in criticism of Gingrich and Romney. Paul doesn’t lag all too far behind Romney, and is clearly within striking distance.
Paul is followed by ex-phenoms Bachmann and Perry, who garner about 5-12% of support, refusing to disappear. Fringe candidates John Huntsman and Rick Santorum, who each garner about 1-4% of support, have only become more popular in the past month.
Percent figures vary significantly from poll to poll, but the candidates’ general order is fairly consistent.
The upcoming Iowa Caucus will be the first big test of the primary. Polling data puts Gingrich ahead, but not by enough of a margin to constitute a serious mandate. If Gingrich wins big in Iowa, it could send his campaign into overdrive and help propel him to a nomination. However, polling data has been so volatile that results are hard to predict, and the door is still wide open for another candidate to make a statement.
The New Hampshire Primary follows on January 10th. While this New England state is in Romney’s backyard, the former Massachusetts Governor has not been trending well here. A lack of support in New Hampshire could be a major setback for the Romney campaign, and another opportunity for rival candidates to make a move.
The Republican primary process that starts in January will not end until late June. By the time Connecticut Republicans get their chance to vote on April 24th, the field may look vastly different than it does now. Presumably, clear leaders will be established and other candidates will have dropped out.
Connecticut residents have plenty of time to get to know their candidates before they have to make their decision, and certainly can look forward to months of entertainment from this already-electric campaign.
Check out:
http://www.darienps.org/neirad/1112shuffle.php to read more on local politics
www.gop.com to follow the Grand Old Party
http://www.democrats.org/ to follow the Democratic National Committee
