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I-      =             Campaigns and Elections

a.     Pres= ident

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;          i.   &nb= sp;  Tends to be the tightest of all races- rarely do= es 1 party get more than 60% of vote

1.     Reco= rd LBJ-1964, 61%, Biggest margin—FDR 1936 24%

a.     Elec= toral College may make it look like a blowout

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;       i.   &nb= sp;  1980 Reagan 489 of 535 but didn’t have 50%= of vote and won by 9%

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     ii.   &n= bsp;  1984 Reagan won by 20% plus and 525 Electoral vo= tes

1.     Elec= toral College 538 votes

a.     435 = house

b.    100 = senators

c.      3 DC=

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;    i.   &nb= sp;  Electoral Votes are cast in December<= /span>

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;  ii.   &n= bsp;  Counted and Certified in January—w/new ses= sion of Congress-2 weeks before inauguration by old VP in Senate

2.     If n= o victor—House vote by State delegation

3.     If n= o VP—Senate vote by head count

 

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;        ii.   &n= bsp;  4 yr term

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     iii.   &= nbsp;  2 terms

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     iv.   &n= bsp;  Perks of Office

a.     Fran= king, Trips, Websites etc..

b.    Media Exposure

c.      Gove= rnment Contracts

2.     Air = Force One

3.     Whit= e House, w/its own Marching Band!

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;        v.   &nb= sp;  Best Background to Winning the President

1.     Gove= rnor- shows administrative ability and leadership (Bush/Clinton)

a.     Pres= idents’ w/Prior experience as Governors? (Reagan/Carter)

2.     Early Republic- Secretary of State (Madison, Monroe, Adams)=

3.     Gene= ral/Military Hero- Eisenhower, Grant.

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     vi.   &n= bsp;  Worst Background- Congressman or Senator****

1.     Last= Senator to go directly from Senate to White House before  Barack Obama????- JFK, prio= r to JFK-???

a.     Prob= lem- too much logrolling, omnibus bills, leads to “flip-flop”=

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;       i.   &nb= sp;  Obama only was in the Senate for 4 years, which = was probably an advantage

2.     Last Congressman to go directly from Senate to White House????=

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;   vii.   &= nbsp;  Vice Presidents?

1.     Is i= t worth a warm bucket of spit?

a.     Ofte= n No!!!

b.    Often selected for geography- LBJ in 1960, or other weakness in campaign (moralit= y- Gore chose Lieberman to overcome the Clinton issues)

c.      Some= times to make up for another lacking

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;       i.   &nb= sp;  Foreign experience---Cheney and Biden=

d.    Ofte= n little to no relationship between VP and Pres

e.      VP i= s often the “attack dog”, can get away w/more biting statements than the President

f.      Sinc= e 1976, VP has taken on a more active role in the Presidency<= /p>

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;            viii.   =    When to Start Running

1.     Cart= er and Reagan began campaigns years earlier

a.     Obam= a was “drafted” in a sense

2.     Start putting together your “team”, make connection w/local political leaders

3.     Begin Amassing Money

4.     Visi= t Iowa, New Hampsh= ire

b.    Cong= ress

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;          i.   &nb= sp;  House

1.     2 ye= ar Term

2.     Unli= mited # Terms

3.     435 = Seats (determined by law (1911)

4.     Cens= us every 10 years- States apportioned Reps

a.     Stat= es draw districts (more than 1x 10yrs?)

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;       i.   &nb= sp;  Gerrymandering- Ruling Party State Determines

1.     Few = Swing or at Play districts

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     ii.   &n= bsp;  Limits on Drawing Lines

1.     Subj= ect to 14th Amend

a.     Malapportionment (1962 Case)

b.    Race=

5.     Powe= r of Incumbency

a.     Few Congresspersons lose their job-<10%, often run unopposed

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;       i.   &nb= sp;  Gerrymandering makes districts non-competitive

b.    Soph= omore Surge

c.      Perk= s of Office

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;       i.   &nb= sp;  Committee Assignments (all politics is local)

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     ii.   &n= bsp;  Franking, Trips, Websites etc..

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;  iii.   &= nbsp;  Media Exposure

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;  iv.   &n= bsp;  Pork

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     v.   &nb= sp;    Constituent Services

 

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;        ii.   &n= bsp;  Senate

1.     6 yr= Term

2.     Unli= mited # terms

3.     100 = Seats

4.     Powe= r of Incumbency

a.     Less Powerful than in House- More turnover, some Sophomore Surge, but weaker

b.    Perk= s of Office

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;       i.   &nb= sp;  Committee Assignments (all politics is local!)

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     ii.   &n= bsp;  Franking, Trips, Websites etc..

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;  iii.   &= nbsp;  Media Exposure

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;  iv.   &n= bsp;  Pork

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     v.   &nb= sp;  Constituent Services

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     iii.   &= nbsp;  Off Presidential Year? Or Presidential Election<= o:p>

1.     Coat= tails?

a.     Pres= idential Popularity

2.     Retr= ospective v. Prospective Voting

a.     It&#= 8217;s the Economy Stupid!! Look to last 6 months

b.    Pros= pective tends to be theme oriented

3.     If non-Presidential Election- expect lower turnout

a.     Pres= ident’s party generally loses seats in Congress during off year <= /b>

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;       i.   &nb= sp;  not true in 1998 and 2002- ANOMALIES- LEWINSKY A= FFAIR BACKFIRED ON REPUBLICANS AND 9/11 lingering effects together with the HOMEL= AND SECURITY DEBATE HURT DEMOCRATS

b.    Is P= resident Lame Duck?

 

 

c.      Runn= ing for Office (States determine Residency Requirements for those running for Feder= al Office- (example of State’s Rights and Federalism)<= /b>

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;          i.   &nb= sp;  Getting Nominated to Run?<= /p>

1.     Party selects or through Primary

2.     Gett= ing Money- See Campaign Finance Reform Act 2002 and Opensecrets.org<= /span>

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;       i.   &nb= sp;  Limits on PACs, Soft Money (see www.opensecrets.or= g/basics/law/index.asp

 

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     ii.   &n= bsp;  $2300.00 max contribution per individual per cam= paign

 

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;  iii.   &= nbsp;  $5000.00 max from a PAC

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;  iv.   &n= bsp;  You can spend as much money as you want of your = own (Buckley v. Valeo case- 1st amendment right), Perot $100 Mill, Corzine $70+ Mill,

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     v.   &nb= sp;  Pres. Election matching funds in primary and gen= eral election (if 5% or above in last election)- if you take the money you’= ;re limited to how much you spend

1.     Kerr= y, Bush and Dean all opted out of public funding

b.    Camp= aign Finance Reform Act and Interest Groups

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;       i.   &nb= sp;  30 day ban on ads mentioning a Candidate’s= name prior to Primary

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     ii.   &n= bsp;  60 day ban on ads mentioning a Candidate’s= name prior to General Election

1.     Many= believe that current Supreme Court will overturn 30/60 day ban

2.     Ban = on Corporate Expenditures already overturned

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;  iii.   &= nbsp;  Deemed Constitutional- NRA and AFL-CIO and NOW a= ll joined together in lawsuit- Politics makes strange bedfellows – =

1.     527 = Groups? How will they effect politics

a.     Post= 2002 Campaign Finance Reform

b.    Comp= lete separation from Candidate

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;    i.   &nb= sp;  Creates polarization- amongst electorate

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;  ii.   &n= bsp;  Less control of the parties

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           iii.   &= nbsp;  Can’t support a specific Candidate

Organization=

c.      Pres= s People

d.    Local Activists

e.      Plat= form

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;       i.   &nb= sp;  Theme/Tone

1.     Posi= tion Issue v. Valence Issue

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     ii.   &n= bsp;  Position Papers- Get the experts out<= /span>

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;  iii.   &= nbsp;  Maybe a Book- bio? A la J. McCain or T. Sorenson= Profiles of Courage

3.     Expo= sure

a.     TV <= o:p>

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;       i.   &nb= sp;  Who defines the terms? Interviews? Free Exposure= but at what cost

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;     ii.   &n= bsp;  Ads EXPENSIVE- especially in big markets (LA, NY= )

b.    Deba= tes (depends on your opponents willingness and your interest), are 3rd parties included?

&nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;       i.   &nb= sp;  Does it help or hurt?

1.     Free= TV

2.     Mode= rately can help- Again look to expectations

3.     Gaff= es- Nixon/Kennedy Debate (Five o’Clock Shadow= ) G. Ford- Poland, 1st Reagan Mondale Debate, Bush Gore Debates (a little too much = sun Al???), Bush Kerry Debate, McCain/Obama (Composed v. Emotional—Joe the Plumber)

4.     If you’re ahead you don’t want to , if you’re behind go for = it

c.      Dire= ct Mail

d.    2004= - Use of large scale Email – Dean campaign/Obama 2008

e.      20008 Internet- Youtube, Faceboo= k etc…--FREE- HOW WILL THIS CHANGE CAMPAIGNS!!!

4.     Dece= ntralization---WITH LAWS LIMITING PARTY PATRONAGE, MACHINES, EXPENDITURES ET. AL, PARTIES HAVE DECLINED IN IMPORTANCE ALLOWING INTEREST GROUPS TO RISE IN IMPORTANCE AND <= span class=3DSpellE>AND AND!!! CANDIDATES RUN= MORE ON THEIR OWN NAME RATHER THAN THEIR POLITICAL PARTY THAN IN THE PAST.

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